What We Publish, and When

A publishing calendar is a claim about what a site can defend. Ours has two halves that behave differently, because the two halves of the fantasy year ask different questions. Draft season asks how to spend capital once, under a deadline, against a room that is guessing. The season asks a narrower question every week: what did the model get wrong, and did the reason survive contact with the box score.

The engines underneath the two halves run on different clocks: the season model reruns by hand, the weekly model daily. A rerun that moves no median produces nothing worth publishing, so what follows is written as shapes and triggers. ADP moves daily and the boards read it daily.

What Ships During Draft Season

Draft season carries two kinds of pages, and they age at different speeds. The boards are live surfaces. The PPR draft rankings and their half-PPR and standard siblings change underneath the prose whenever the model runs, which is why nothing written here quotes a current rank or a current gap. Strategy pieces are the slow layer: mechanism, thresholds, and how to read a board once it is in front of you.

The strategy library is built by argument, one page per operation. Replacement level and the arithmetic of positional scarcity live on the value-based drafting page. The spacing between projections, and how to find the point where a position falls off a cliff, is worked through on the tier breaks page. The round-by-round case gets its own piece; for a first read, the draft strategy guide is the entry point, and every other page narrows a slice of it.

Draft-season additions follow two triggers. A new argument earns a page when it changes how a reader should act at the board — a screen with a definable cutoff, a build shape with a stated cost, a format difference big enough to move a pick. A revision gets published when a backtest changes an answer we already gave, and the revision states what the old answer was and what moved it.

What The Ledger Covers, Week To Week

Every graded week gets a Ledger page that prints the model's own scorecard: right and wrong calls in the same table, with the same columns and the same error figures, largest miss first. Neighboring start/sit pairs are labeled close or clear from the numbers first posted, so no label depends on how the game went and a lean that happened to land is never filed as a clean call.

Each page does four jobs. It lists the graded projections for players on our season board with the miss, the actual score minus our median, and states how many graded players it leaves off. It marks whether each score landed inside the band we posted, which separates the misses the band already priced from the ones it did not. It counts how the neighboring start/sit leans broke, and it reports how many medians moved a full point or more between the first posting and the last re-run, in medians rather than adjectives.

The summary of that accounting is the public accuracy record: one row per graded week, beside the backtest. The Ledger is the week-level detail behind each row.

An Invented Week, Walked Through

Take an invented week of the Ledger — numbers made up to show the shape, with no real players, no real week, and nothing to look up. Four graded calls: a lead back with a published median of 14.2 who scored 9.6; a second receiver at 11.0 who scored 11.4; a role tight end at 6.8 who scored 16.6; a committee back at 8.5 who scored 8.2.

Run the absolute errors and the week reads 4.6, 0.4, 9.8, and 0.3, for a mean absolute error of 3.8 across the four. The Ledger sorts them 9.8, 4.6, 0.4, 0.3, so the two big misses sit at the top of the table and the two calls inside half a point sit under them, at the same precision.

Those two misses fail in different ways, and the range column tells them apart. Give the lead back an invented band of 4.8 to 28.0, skewed high the way weekly bands are: his 9.6 lands inside it, a bad outcome the model had priced. Give the tight end a band of 1.8 to 15.2: his 16.6 lands above it, an outcome the band did not cover. A band that never gets caught out at its own P90 is a band too wide to be useful, which is why the Ledger prints the range verdict beside every error.

Staying inside the same invented frame, one more number matters: the size of the move after the first posting. The move count has one rule, a full point: a median that shifts 0.3 never reaches it, even when that shift flips two neighbors, and a median that shifts 2.4 always does. Either way the grade stays on the first posting.

The Standing List Of Things We Skip

We skip breaking injury news on purpose: it is a speed business, and we would lose it. From a report, the weekly model reads only the official designation, pulling a player whose designation usually means he sits (Doubtful, Out, IR, PUP, or a suspension) from its next daily run; the rest of the story reaches it as scoring, and the Ledger records the miss after the fact.

Borrowed consensus is off the list for a different reason. A page that ranks by what the room already believes has no error of its own to report, and a site whose whole argument is public grading has no use for content that cannot be graded.

Hype churn is the third category: the weekly sleeper carousel, the annual roundup of players nobody can supposedly afford to miss, the recycled take under a new headline. Those pages exist to be indexed. One page per question, revised in place with its history left visible, is the shape we keep.

Two smaller omissions are worth stating plainly. There is no player or team photography anywhere on this site, which is a licensing fact and not an aesthetic one. Announcements of features that do not exist yet are the second, and leaving them out keeps a schedule honest in the only way a schedule can be.

Where This Puts You

For a draft that has not happened yet, this page is a map of what else is worth reading, and the strategy library is where the arguments themselves live. For a season already underway, the weekly Ledger is the thing to read against your own lineup calls; the models behind its numbers are described on the methodology page, and each Ledger page states its own counting rules.

Read the record before you lean on any of it, including this piece. A schedule that advertises transparency is worth exactly what the published error figures support, and those figures sit on the record page for anyone who wants to check the claim against the arithmetic.