Week 1 · 2026 Season · updated Mon, 14 Sep 2026 13:00:36 GMT
Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections
Week 1 projections and start/sit calls, every one with a P10–P50–P90 range. When the games are final we grade the call against what actually happened. Nothing gets pulled down after a bad Sunday.
Quick answer
Who should I start in Week 1?
Start Josh Allen at QB (P50 18.7), Jahmyr Gibbs at RB (17.1), Puka Nacua at WR (16.0), and Trey McBride at TE (10.9) — the top P50 at each lineup spot in our Week 1 PPR projections. The range decides the close ones: take the wider P10–P90 band when you're chasing points, the narrower one when you're protecting a lead. The full grade posts the day after the week's last game, starting Week 1.
Week 1 starters
| Pos | Player | P50 | P10–P90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Josh AllenBUF | 18.7 | 9.0–28.9 |
| Jared GoffDET | 17.8 | 8.5–27.4 | |
| Lamar JacksonBAL | 17.6 | 8.5–27.1 | |
| Justin HerbertLAC | 17.5 | 8.4–26.9 | |
| Matthew StaffordLAR | 17.3 | 8.3–26.7 | |
| RB | Jahmyr GibbsDET | 17.1 | 5.9–33.6 |
| Christian McCaffreySF | 16.1 | 5.5–31.6 | |
| Jonathan TaylorIND | 14.6 | 5.0–28.7 | |
| Derrick HenryBAL | 13.7 | 4.7–27.0 | |
| Chase BrownCIN | 13.5 | 4.6–26.5 | |
| WR | Puka NacuaLAR | 16.0 | 4.6–33.6 |
| Ja'Marr ChaseCIN | 15.4 | 4.4–32.4 | |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownDET | 14.7 | 4.2–31.0 | |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA | 13.7 | 3.9–28.9 | |
| Davante AdamsLAR | 12.4 | 3.5–26.0 | |
| TE | Trey McBrideARI | 10.9 | 2.8–24.4 |
| George KittleSF | 10.2 | 2.6–22.7 | |
| Sam LaPortaDET | 9.4 | 2.4–21.1 | |
| Dallas GoedertPHI | 9.1 | 2.3–20.2 | |
| Tucker KraftGB | 8.9 | 2.3–19.8 |
85 players on the current injury report — Out, Doubtful, IR, PUP, or suspended — sit out this week's numbers instead of being projected at full strength.
FAQ
When do Week 1 projections go live?
Week 1 projections post before the week's first kickoff, once the slate and the lines are in. The weekly model reruns daily, so a line change or a late injury designation can still move a posted number. The grade is stricter than that: it lands on the first version we post before kickoff. A rerun updates the number you see, never the copy we answer for. Until the week posts, this page says so instead of running fake numbers. The draft board is live year-round, with a season-long P10–P90 on every ranked player.
How wide is a weekly projection range?
Wide. One game is a sample of one, so a weekly band runs far wider relative to its median than a season-long band does. The exact width is on this page per player once the week posts. The calls those bands ride on get graded week by week from Week 1, on the accuracy ledger — and so is the band itself: the ledger's Range hit column posts how often the actual finished inside the range we gave. In the season model's published backtest, 66.7% to 83.2% of outcomes landed inside a P10–P90 band built to hold 80%. Our ranges run narrow. We published that before anyone asked, and the weekly number will post the same way — narrow or not.
Do Week 1 projections account for the matchup?
Yes, through the game environment. The Vegas spread and total set the week's implied team totals, and a player's number scales with that environment — so a projection can move on a line change alone, with no news about the player. What v1 does not do yet: model plays, usage shares, and efficiency as separate steps. Those stay folded into one scoring rate, blended from this season's games, the last two seasons, and the position. Splitting them out is still ahead — the season model's v2 work was calibration and the WR change, not this.