The Ledger
Week 3, graded
Final. The NFL's stat corrections are in, and this week will not change again.
Quick answer
How did our Week 3 projections do?
Across 122 projected players who played, our PPR medians missed by 5.34 points on average, and 84% of actual scores landed inside the posted P10–P90 range. Among neighboring start/sit pairs with a higher median, that median outscored its neighbor 32 times in 72.
- Players graded
- 122
- Average miss (MAE)
- 5.34
- Inside the posted range
- 84%
- Higher median outscored
- 32 of 72
Start/sit neighbors: among the players who played, we ordered the ones that week's board named by the median we first posted, kept the top 12 QBs, 30 RBs, 36 WRs and 12 TEs among them (the model's replacement-level counts), and paired each with the next one down. All 86 pairs were close calls before kickoff, with bands overlapping by at least half. 14 pairs had equal medians and no call; in the other 72, the higher median outscored its neighbor 32 times.
Graded projections, largest miss first
All 122 graded players are listed, largest miss first.
The miss is the actual score minus our median, so a positive number means the player beat it. Inside means the score landed between the P10 and the P90 we posted.
| Player | Pos | P10 | Median | P90 | Scored | Miss | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 6.8 | 19.9 | 39.2 | 41.4 | +21.5 | Above |
| Michael Wilson | WR | 0.0 | 5.3 | 17.4 | 25.9 | +20.6 | Above |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | 5.2 | 15.0 | 29.6 | 35.3 | +20.3 | Above |
| Drake London | WR | 2.8 | 9.9 | 21.0 | 28.4 | +18.5 | Above |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 5.1 | 18.1 | 38.2 | 35.4 | +17.3 | Inside |
| Harold Fannin | TE | 2.0 | 7.7 | 17.2 | 24.1 | +16.4 | Above |
| Jordan Addison | WR | 0.0 | 4.8 | 15.5 | 20.0 | +15.2 | Above |
| Luther Burden | WR | 0.0 | 4.8 | 15.4 | 19.8 | +15.0 | Above |
| George Kittle | TE | 3.0 | 11.6 | 25.8 | 26.2 | +14.6 | Above |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 2.2 | 8.7 | 19.3 | 23.3 | +14.6 | Above |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | 0.0 | 5.1 | 16.6 | 19.7 | +14.6 | Above |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 0.0 | 5.3 | 17.1 | 18.7 | +13.4 | Above |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 0.0 | 5.1 | 16.5 | 18.3 | +13.2 | Above |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | 3.2 | 9.3 | 18.3 | 20.6 | +11.3 | Above |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 4.0 | 14.2 | 30.0 | 24.8 | +10.6 | Inside |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | 2.6 | 9.2 | 19.4 | 19.4 | +10.2 | Inside |
| De'Von Achane | RB | 4.0 | 11.8 | 23.2 | 1.7 | -10.1 | Below |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 0.0 | 4.7 | 15.3 | 14.6 | +9.9 | Inside |
| Tee Higgins | WR | 3.2 | 11.1 | 23.4 | 21.0 | +9.9 | Inside |
| Drake Maye | QB | 1.7 | 14.5 | 25.3 | 5.8 | -8.7 | Inside |
| Kyren Williams | RB | 4.5 | 13.2 | 25.9 | 21.8 | +8.6 | Inside |
| Tony Pollard | RB | 0.2 | 5.2 | 17.0 | 13.6 | +8.4 | Inside |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | 2.7 | 9.6 | 20.2 | 1.6 | -8.0 | Below |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 2.9 | 11.5 | 25.6 | 3.8 | -7.7 | Inside |
| Josh Downs | WR | 0.0 | 5.3 | 17.4 | 12.7 | +7.4 | Inside |
| Malik Washington | WR | 0.0 | 3.7 | 12.0 | 11.1 | +7.4 | Inside |
| Brian Thomas | WR | 2.6 | 9.0 | 19.0 | 1.8 | -7.2 | Below |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | 5.6 | 16.4 | 32.3 | 9.2 | -7.2 | Inside |
| Bo Nix | QB | 1.7 | 14.2 | 24.7 | 21.1 | +6.9 | Inside |
| Oronde Gadsden | TE | 1.8 | 6.9 | 15.3 | 0.0 | -6.9 | Below |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 5.3 | 18.7 | 39.5 | 11.9 | -6.8 | Inside |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 2.9 | 10.2 | 21.5 | 3.7 | -6.5 | Inside |
| Davante Adams | WR | 4.1 | 14.3 | 30.2 | 20.7 | +6.4 | Inside |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | 3.3 | 11.6 | 24.6 | 5.2 | -6.4 | Inside |
| Evan Engram | TE | 1.6 | 6.3 | 13.9 | 0.0 | -6.3 | Below |
| Josh Allen | QB | 12.3 | 25.7 | 39.9 | 19.5 | -6.2 | Inside |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 3.5 | 10.1 | 19.8 | 3.9 | -6.2 | Inside |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | 8.1 | 16.8 | 26.1 | 22.9 | +6.1 | Inside |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 4.0 | 11.7 | 22.9 | 5.6 | -6.1 | Inside |
| Tyler Warren | TE | 2.2 | 8.6 | 19.1 | 14.7 | +6.1 | Inside |
| Rachaad White | RB | 0.2 | 5.1 | 16.4 | 11.1 | +6.0 | Inside |
| Javonte Williams | RB | 4.2 | 12.4 | 24.4 | 18.3 | +5.9 | Inside |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 1.8 | 7.1 | 15.9 | 1.5 | -5.6 | Below |
| AJ Barner | TE | 1.6 | 6.4 | 14.2 | 11.9 | +5.5 | Inside |
| Chris Olave | WR | 4.1 | 14.3 | 30.2 | 19.7 | +5.4 | Inside |
| Kenneth Walker | RB | 5.5 | 15.9 | 31.3 | 21.3 | +5.4 | Inside |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | 2.6 | 9.0 | 19.0 | 4.0 | -5.0 | Inside |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | 2.7 | 9.3 | 19.7 | 4.4 | -4.9 | Inside |
| Aaron Jones | RB | 3.3 | 9.5 | 18.7 | 14.2 | +4.7 | Inside |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | 3.4 | 9.8 | 19.2 | 5.1 | -4.7 | Inside |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | 3.0 | 10.7 | 22.6 | 15.4 | +4.7 | Inside |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | 1.6 | 6.2 | 13.8 | 1.5 | -4.7 | Below |
| Zach Ertz | TE | 1.7 | 6.5 | 14.6 | 1.9 | -4.6 | Inside |
| Derrick Henry | RB | 6.0 | 17.5 | 34.4 | 21.9 | +4.4 | Inside |
| Tyrone Tracy | RB | 0.2 | 4.6 | 15.0 | 0.3 | -4.3 | Inside |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | 8.6 | 17.9 | 27.7 | 13.6 | -4.3 | Inside |
| George Pickens | WR | 3.1 | 11.0 | 23.4 | 15.2 | +4.2 | Inside |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 0.2 | 4.7 | 15.2 | 0.5 | -4.2 | Inside |
| David Montgomery | RB | 3.7 | 10.9 | 21.5 | 6.8 | -4.1 | Inside |
| James Cook | RB | 5.3 | 15.3 | 30.1 | 19.4 | +4.1 | Inside |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 10.1 | 21.0 | 32.6 | 16.9 | -4.1 | Inside |
| Chase Brown | RB | 4.4 | 12.9 | 25.4 | 8.9 | -4.0 | Inside |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | 8.1 | 16.8 | 26.1 | 20.8 | +4.0 | Inside |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | 3.8 | 11.1 | 21.8 | 15.0 | +3.9 | Inside |
| Jordan Love | QB | 1.9 | 15.6 | 27.2 | 19.5 | +3.9 | Inside |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 4.0 | 11.6 | 22.8 | 7.8 | -3.8 | Inside |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | 1.8 | 6.9 | 15.4 | 3.1 | -3.8 | Inside |
| Trey McBride | TE | 3.3 | 12.7 | 28.3 | 16.5 | +3.8 | Inside |
| Woody Marks | RB | 0.2 | 5.3 | 17.2 | 9.1 | +3.8 | Inside |
| DK Metcalf | WR | 2.4 | 8.4 | 17.8 | 12.1 | +3.7 | Inside |
| Colby Parkinson | TE | 0.0 | 3.6 | 12.5 | 0.0 | -3.6 | Inside |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | 2.4 | 9.4 | 21.0 | 6.0 | -3.4 | Inside |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | 4.3 | 15.0 | 31.7 | 18.2 | +3.2 | Inside |
| Cole Kmet | TE | 0.0 | 3.2 | 10.9 | 0.0 | -3.2 | Inside |
| Breece Hall | RB | 4.0 | 11.6 | 22.8 | 8.5 | -3.1 | Inside |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | 2.7 | 10.5 | 23.3 | 7.4 | -3.1 | Inside |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | 6.4 | 18.7 | 36.8 | 21.6 | +2.9 | Inside |
| Jonnu Smith | TE | 1.7 | 6.5 | 14.5 | 3.6 | -2.9 | Inside |
| Mark Andrews | TE | 2.1 | 8.3 | 18.4 | 5.4 | -2.9 | Inside |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | 0.0 | 5.1 | 16.5 | 7.9 | +2.8 | Inside |
| C.J. Stroud | QB | 1.7 | 14.4 | 25.1 | 11.7 | -2.7 | Inside |
| Kyle Monangai | RB | 0.2 | 5.8 | 18.9 | 3.1 | -2.7 | Inside |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | 2.8 | 10.0 | 21.1 | 7.3 | -2.7 | Inside |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 3.2 | 9.4 | 18.6 | 6.8 | -2.6 | Inside |
| Marvin Harrison | WR | 0.0 | 4.5 | 14.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | Inside |
| Parker Washington | WR | 3.0 | 10.5 | 22.1 | 13.0 | +2.5 | Inside |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | 2.5 | 8.8 | 18.7 | 11.2 | +2.4 | Inside |
| Elic Ayomanor | WR | 0.0 | 4.3 | 13.9 | 2.1 | -2.2 | Inside |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | 3.8 | 11.2 | 21.9 | 9.0 | -2.2 | Inside |
| Travis Kelce | TE | 3.0 | 11.7 | 26.0 | 13.9 | +2.2 | Inside |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | 2.3 | 8.8 | 19.6 | 6.6 | -2.2 | Inside |
| Rome Odunze | WR | 0.0 | 5.3 | 17.3 | 7.4 | +2.1 | Inside |
| Cade Otton | TE | 1.7 | 6.6 | 14.6 | 8.6 | +2.0 | Inside |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | 4.4 | 12.8 | 25.1 | 10.8 | -2.0 | Inside |
| Kenny Gainwell | RB | 0.2 | 5.0 | 16.2 | 3.0 | -2.0 | Inside |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | 1.8 | 7.1 | 15.8 | 5.1 | -2.0 | Inside |
| Bryce Young | QB | 7.9 | 16.5 | 25.6 | 14.6 | -1.9 | Inside |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | 1.7 | 13.9 | 24.3 | 12.3 | -1.6 | Inside |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | 0.0 | 5.4 | 17.4 | 7.0 | +1.6 | Inside |
| Travis Etienne | RB | 3.6 | 10.6 | 20.9 | 9.0 | -1.6 | Inside |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | 9.2 | 19.1 | 29.6 | 20.4 | +1.3 | Inside |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 2.9 | 10.2 | 21.6 | 8.9 | -1.3 | Inside |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | 0.0 | 4.6 | 14.9 | 3.4 | -1.2 | Inside |
| Colston Loveland | TE | 1.5 | 6.0 | 13.3 | 7.1 | +1.1 | Inside |
| Brenton Strange | TE | 1.8 | 7.2 | 16.0 | 6.2 | -1.0 | Inside |
| Troy Franklin | WR | 0.0 | 4.1 | 13.3 | 3.1 | -1.0 | Inside |
| Dak Prescott | QB | 8.6 | 17.9 | 27.8 | 16.9 | -1.0 | Inside |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | 2.4 | 8.5 | 18.0 | 7.6 | -0.9 | Inside |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | 3.3 | 11.6 | 24.6 | 12.5 | +0.9 | Inside |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | 3.1 | 9.0 | 17.7 | 9.9 | +0.9 | Inside |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | 2.8 | 9.8 | 20.8 | 10.6 | +0.8 | Inside |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 0.2 | 4.6 | 15.1 | 5.3 | +0.7 | Inside |
| Darnell Mooney | WR | 0.0 | 4.3 | 13.9 | 4.9 | +0.6 | Inside |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 0.2 | 5.7 | 18.3 | 6.3 | +0.6 | Inside |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | 0.2 | 4.3 | 13.8 | 4.9 | +0.6 | Inside |
| Justin Herbert | QB | 1.7 | 14.3 | 25.0 | 13.7 | -0.6 | Inside |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | 4.3 | 12.7 | 24.9 | 12.3 | -0.4 | Inside |
| Chimere Dike | WR | 0.0 | 1.7 | 10.5 | 1.3 | -0.4 | Inside |
| Gunnar Helm | TE | 0.0 | 3.0 | 10.3 | 3.4 | +0.4 | Inside |
| Jake Ferguson | TE | 2.3 | 8.9 | 19.8 | 9.3 | +0.4 | Inside |
| Tre Tucker | WR | 2.4 | 8.5 | 18.0 | 8.3 | -0.2 | Inside |
| Jared Goff | QB | 9.2 | 19.2 | 29.7 | 19.4 | +0.2 | Inside |
What moved after the first posting
The grade uses the first posting, from Sep 22, 2026. The weekly model re-runs daily and the week's hub picks up each run within the hour, but a re-run never changes the grade. The last re-run for this week came on Sep 28, 2026.
19 medians moved a full point or more by the last re-run; the 3 named by that week's board are listed below.
| Player | Pos | First posting | Last re-run | Change | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson | WR | 5.3 | 8.3 | +3.0 | 25.9 |
| Colston Loveland | TE | 6.0 | 3.6 | -2.4 | 7.1 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | 16.8 | 15.7 | -1.1 | 22.9 |
32 players in the first posting were gone from the last re-run. The weekly model removes a player whose designation reads Doubtful, Out, IR, PUP or suspended.
The week's summary row sits on the accuracy record; its newest projections are on the week's hub.
FAQ
What exactly gets graded here?
The first weekly PPR projection we posted for each player, ahead of that week's opening kickoff. Half-PPR, standard and the daily-fantasy numbers are not graded, and the draft board's season projections are judged by their backtest, never by rows on this page.
Why list the misses first?
A scorecard sorted by its best rows is a brochure. The Ledger sorts on how far each projection missed, so the calls that went furthest wrong come first and the ones that landed near the median follow at the same precision.
When does a start/sit pair count as close?
When the two bands overlapped by at least half of the narrower one, or when the two medians printed the same. That is the start/sit comparer's rule; the Ledger applies it to the numbers first posted before kickoff, so the label never depends on the score.
Why are neighboring pairs almost always close?
Weekly ranges run wide, because a single game carries a lot of noise, and two players a rank apart usually share most of their P10–P90 range. The comparer calls those leans, and the neighbor record is a count of how leans broke, not a tally of clean wins.
When does a week stop changing?
The grading run posts a week's rows once its main slate is final and the full week the day after its last game. The NFL's stat corrections can still change a score after that, so a week reads final only once those corrections are in.