The Ledger
Week 4, graded
Final. The NFL's stat corrections are in, and this week will not change again.
Quick answer
How did our Week 4 projections do?
Across 120 projected players who played, our PPR medians missed by 6.13 points on average, and 83% of actual scores landed inside the posted P10–P90 range. Among neighboring start/sit pairs with a higher median, that median outscored its neighbor 34 times in 74.
- Players graded
- 120
- Average miss (MAE)
- 6.13
- Inside the posted range
- 83%
- Higher median outscored
- 34 of 74
Start/sit neighbors: among the players who played, we ordered the ones that week's board named by the median we first posted, kept the top 12 QBs, 30 RBs, 36 WRs and 12 TEs among them (the model's replacement-level counts), and paired each with the next one down. All 86 pairs were close calls before kickoff, with bands overlapping by at least half. 12 pairs had equal medians and no call; in the other 74, the higher median outscored its neighbor 34 times.
Graded projections, largest miss first
All 120 graded players are listed, largest miss first.
The miss is the actual score minus our median, so a positive number means the player beat it. Inside means the score landed between the P10 and the P90 we posted.
| Player | Pos | P10 | Median | P90 | Scored | Miss | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 2.7 | 9.6 | 20.3 | 45.2 | +35.6 | Above |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | 4.1 | 14.5 | 30.5 | 41.3 | +26.8 | Above |
| Kyren Williams | RB | 4.8 | 13.9 | 27.4 | 36.7 | +22.8 | Above |
| Kyle Monangai | RB | 0.2 | 5.6 | 18.2 | 28.0 | +22.4 | Above |
| Javonte Williams | RB | 4.3 | 12.4 | 24.4 | 31.3 | +18.9 | Above |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | 0.0 | 5.0 | 16.3 | 23.8 | +18.8 | Above |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | 1.7 | 6.8 | 15.3 | 24.9 | +18.1 | Above |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | 0.2 | 5.7 | 18.3 | 21.6 | +15.9 | Above |
| Kenneth Walker | RB | 5.4 | 15.8 | 31.0 | 30.9 | +15.1 | Inside |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | 4.0 | 11.6 | 22.9 | 25.9 | +14.3 | Above |
| Tee Higgins | WR | 3.7 | 13.0 | 27.5 | 26.7 | +13.7 | Inside |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | 3.3 | 9.7 | 19.2 | 22.8 | +13.1 | Above |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | 2.6 | 10.0 | 22.4 | 22.4 | +12.4 | Inside |
| Zay Flowers | WR | 3.9 | 13.6 | 28.6 | 25.8 | +12.2 | Inside |
| Drake Maye | QB | 1.6 | 13.4 | 23.5 | 25.2 | +11.8 | Above |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 4.7 | 16.5 | 34.8 | 5.7 | -10.8 | Inside |
| RJ Harvey | RB | 3.3 | 9.6 | 19.0 | 19.3 | +9.7 | Above |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | 6.2 | 18.2 | 35.8 | 27.7 | +9.5 | Inside |
| Brenton Strange | TE | 1.8 | 7.1 | 15.8 | 16.5 | +9.4 | Above |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | 2.5 | 8.9 | 18.8 | 0.0 | -8.9 | Below |
| Brock Bowers | TE | 3.0 | 11.9 | 26.7 | 20.6 | +8.7 | Inside |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 2.7 | 10.4 | 23.3 | 1.7 | -8.7 | Below |
| Parker Washington | WR | 3.0 | 10.7 | 22.5 | 2.0 | -8.7 | Below |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | 2.0 | 7.9 | 17.7 | 16.5 | +8.6 | Inside |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | 0.2 | 4.4 | 14.4 | 12.9 | +8.5 | Inside |
| C.J. Stroud | QB | 1.8 | 14.6 | 25.7 | 23.1 | +8.5 | Inside |
| Malik Washington | WR | 0.0 | 3.6 | 11.9 | 12.0 | +8.4 | Above |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | 3.5 | 10.3 | 20.2 | 2.0 | -8.3 | Below |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | 0.0 | 4.4 | 14.4 | 12.3 | +7.9 | Inside |
| Tony Pollard | RB | 0.2 | 5.2 | 16.8 | 13.0 | +7.8 | Inside |
| Travis Kelce | TE | 2.9 | 11.3 | 25.4 | 3.5 | -7.8 | Inside |
| DJ Moore | WR | 3.0 | 10.4 | 21.9 | 2.7 | -7.7 | Below |
| DK Metcalf | WR | 2.5 | 8.8 | 18.7 | 16.5 | +7.7 | Inside |
| Davante Adams | WR | 4.2 | 14.7 | 30.9 | 7.2 | -7.5 | Inside |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | 3.0 | 10.5 | 22.2 | 18.0 | +7.5 | Inside |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 5.7 | 20.1 | 42.3 | 12.6 | -7.5 | Inside |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 3.1 | 9.0 | 17.7 | 16.4 | +7.4 | Inside |
| Rome Odunze | WR | 2.4 | 8.3 | 17.4 | 15.4 | +7.1 | Inside |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | 2.4 | 8.4 | 17.8 | 1.4 | -7.0 | Below |
| David Montgomery | RB | 3.7 | 10.9 | 21.4 | 4.3 | -6.6 | Inside |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | 2.4 | 9.3 | 20.9 | 2.9 | -6.4 | Inside |
| Aaron Jones | RB | 3.6 | 10.5 | 20.7 | 16.8 | +6.3 | Inside |
| Kenny Gainwell | RB | 0.2 | 4.4 | 14.2 | 10.7 | +6.3 | Inside |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 2.9 | 10.0 | 21.1 | 16.2 | +6.2 | Inside |
| Michael Wilson | WR | 3.0 | 10.4 | 21.9 | 16.5 | +6.1 | Inside |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | 4.4 | 12.8 | 25.2 | 18.6 | +5.8 | Inside |
| Mark Andrews | TE | 2.0 | 7.9 | 17.8 | 13.7 | +5.8 | Inside |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | 4.5 | 13.1 | 25.7 | 7.4 | -5.7 | Inside |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | 2.5 | 8.8 | 18.5 | 14.5 | +5.7 | Inside |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | 0.0 | 5.3 | 17.5 | 11.0 | +5.7 | Inside |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | 8.3 | 17.2 | 26.6 | 11.7 | -5.5 | Inside |
| Chase Brown | RB | 4.7 | 13.6 | 26.7 | 19.1 | +5.5 | Inside |
| Colston Loveland | TE | 1.6 | 6.3 | 14.2 | 11.7 | +5.4 | Inside |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | 5.9 | 17.3 | 34.0 | 22.7 | +5.4 | Inside |
| Oronde Gadsden | TE | 0.0 | 3.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | +5.2 | Inside |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | 2.4 | 8.4 | 17.8 | 3.3 | -5.1 | Inside |
| Josh Allen | QB | 11.8 | 24.6 | 38.0 | 19.5 | -5.1 | Inside |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | 3.6 | 10.6 | 20.8 | 15.6 | +5.0 | Inside |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 3.2 | 9.2 | 18.1 | 4.2 | -5.0 | Inside |
| Bryce Young | QB | 7.9 | 16.5 | 25.5 | 21.5 | +5.0 | Inside |
| AJ Barner | TE | 1.8 | 7.1 | 15.9 | 2.2 | -4.9 | Inside |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 1.6 | 6.4 | 14.4 | 11.2 | +4.8 | Inside |
| Theo Johnson | TE | 0.0 | 3.3 | 11.4 | 8.1 | +4.8 | Inside |
| Josh Downs | WR | 2.7 | 9.3 | 19.7 | 4.6 | -4.7 | Inside |
| George Kittle | TE | 3.2 | 12.4 | 27.8 | 17.0 | +4.6 | Inside |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 7.6 | 22.3 | 43.8 | 17.7 | -4.6 | Inside |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | 2.4 | 8.6 | 18.0 | 13.2 | +4.6 | Inside |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 3.6 | 10.5 | 20.6 | 6.1 | -4.4 | Inside |
| Jake Ferguson | TE | 2.2 | 8.5 | 18.9 | 4.1 | -4.4 | Inside |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | 8.3 | 17.3 | 26.8 | 13.1 | -4.2 | Inside |
| Tyrone Tracy | RB | 0.2 | 4.1 | 13.3 | -0.1 | -4.2 | Below |
| Chris Olave | WR | 4.4 | 15.5 | 32.7 | 19.6 | +4.1 | Inside |
| Darnell Mooney | WR | 0.0 | 4.1 | 13.4 | 0.0 | -4.1 | Inside |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | 2.9 | 10.3 | 21.6 | 6.3 | -4.0 | Inside |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | 1.8 | 6.9 | 15.5 | 10.7 | +3.8 | Inside |
| Trey McBride | TE | 3.6 | 13.9 | 31.2 | 10.1 | -3.8 | Inside |
| Marvin Harrison | WR | 0.0 | 4.8 | 15.7 | 8.2 | +3.4 | Inside |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | 0.0 | 5.1 | 16.8 | 1.8 | -3.3 | Inside |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 3.4 | 10.0 | 19.6 | 13.3 | +3.3 | Inside |
| Zach Ertz | TE | 1.7 | 6.5 | 14.6 | 3.3 | -3.2 | Inside |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 0.0 | 5.3 | 17.4 | 2.3 | -3.0 | Inside |
| Harold Fannin | TE | 2.2 | 8.7 | 19.6 | 11.7 | +3.0 | Inside |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR | 0.0 | 3.8 | 12.5 | 6.6 | +2.8 | Inside |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | 7.8 | 16.3 | 25.2 | 13.5 | -2.8 | Inside |
| Luther Burden | WR | 2.5 | 8.7 | 18.4 | 11.4 | +2.7 | Inside |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 2.4 | 8.3 | 17.4 | 11.0 | +2.7 | Inside |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 9.5 | 19.6 | 30.4 | 17.0 | -2.6 | Inside |
| Woody Marks | RB | 0.2 | 5.6 | 18.0 | 8.2 | +2.6 | Inside |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 0.2 | 4.0 | 12.8 | 1.6 | -2.4 | Inside |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | 3.1 | 10.8 | 22.8 | 8.5 | -2.3 | Inside |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 5.0 | 17.7 | 37.3 | 15.5 | -2.2 | Inside |
| Derrick Henry | RB | 6.2 | 18.0 | 35.4 | 15.9 | -2.1 | Inside |
| Drake London | WR | 3.6 | 12.5 | 26.3 | 14.6 | +2.1 | Inside |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | 6.2 | 18.0 | 35.3 | 16.0 | -2.0 | Inside |
| Evan Engram | TE | 0.0 | 3.6 | 12.3 | 1.6 | -2.0 | Inside |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 0.2 | 5.0 | 16.3 | 7.0 | +2.0 | Inside |
| Michael Pittman | WR | 0.0 | 5.3 | 17.2 | 3.5 | -1.8 | Inside |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 0.2 | 5.5 | 17.8 | 7.2 | +1.7 | Inside |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | 1.6 | 6.2 | 13.9 | 7.7 | +1.5 | Inside |
| Jared Goff | QB | 9.2 | 19.0 | 29.4 | 20.5 | +1.5 | Inside |
| Brian Thomas | WR | 2.4 | 8.3 | 17.4 | 9.7 | +1.4 | Inside |
| Cade Otton | TE | 1.6 | 6.3 | 14.1 | 7.7 | +1.4 | Inside |
| George Pickens | WR | 3.1 | 10.9 | 23.0 | 9.5 | -1.4 | Inside |
| Justin Herbert | QB | 1.6 | 12.9 | 22.7 | 11.6 | -1.3 | Inside |
| Bo Nix | QB | 1.8 | 14.8 | 26.1 | 13.6 | -1.2 | Inside |
| Dak Prescott | QB | 8.1 | 16.9 | 26.1 | 18.1 | +1.2 | Inside |
| Gunnar Helm | TE | 0.0 | 2.7 | 9.3 | 1.5 | -1.2 | Inside |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 2.7 | 10.7 | 23.9 | 11.9 | +1.2 | Inside |
| Chimere Dike | WR | 0.0 | 1.4 | 9.1 | 2.5 | +1.1 | Inside |
| Tyler Warren | TE | 2.6 | 10.1 | 22.6 | 9.1 | -1.0 | Inside |
| Sam Darnold | QB | 1.8 | 15.1 | 26.5 | 14.3 | -0.8 | Inside |
| James Cook | RB | 5.4 | 15.6 | 30.7 | 16.3 | +0.7 | Inside |
| Jonnu Smith | TE | 0.0 | 3.6 | 12.5 | 2.9 | -0.7 | Inside |
| Jordan Love | QB | 1.8 | 14.7 | 25.9 | 14.1 | -0.6 | Inside |
| Elic Ayomanor | WR | 0.0 | 3.7 | 12.1 | 3.2 | -0.5 | Inside |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | 9.3 | 19.2 | 29.7 | 18.9 | -0.3 | Inside |
| Cole Kmet | TE | 0.0 | 3.0 | 10.3 | 3.3 | +0.3 | Inside |
| Jordan Addison | WR | 2.5 | 8.9 | 18.7 | 9.1 | +0.2 | Inside |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | 0.0 | 4.8 | 15.6 | 5.0 | +0.2 | Inside |
| Tre Tucker | WR | 2.4 | 8.6 | 18.1 | 8.4 | -0.2 | Inside |
What moved after the first posting
The grade uses the first posting, from Sep 29, 2026. The weekly model re-runs daily and the week's hub picks up each run within the hour, but a re-run never changes the grade. The last re-run for this week came on Oct 5, 2026.
5 medians moved a full point or more by the last re-run; the 1 named by that week's board are listed below.
| Player | Pos | First posting | Last re-run | Change | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 8.3 | 5.4 | -2.9 | 11.0 |
23 players in the first posting were gone from the last re-run. The weekly model removes a player whose designation reads Doubtful, Out, IR, PUP or suspended.
The week's summary row sits on the accuracy record; its newest projections are on the week's hub.
FAQ
What exactly gets graded here?
The first weekly PPR projection we posted for each player, ahead of that week's opening kickoff. Half-PPR, standard and the daily-fantasy numbers are not graded, and the draft board's season projections are judged by their backtest, never by rows on this page.
Why list the misses first?
A scorecard sorted by its best rows is a brochure. The Ledger sorts on how far each projection missed, so the calls that went furthest wrong come first and the ones that landed near the median follow at the same precision.
When does a start/sit pair count as close?
When the two bands overlapped by at least half of the narrower one, or when the two medians printed the same. That is the start/sit comparer's rule; the Ledger applies it to the numbers first posted before kickoff, so the label never depends on the score.
Why are neighboring pairs almost always close?
Weekly ranges run wide, because a single game carries a lot of noise, and two players a rank apart usually share most of their P10–P90 range. The comparer calls those leans, and the neighbor record is a count of how leans broke, not a tally of clean wins.
When does a week stop changing?
The grading run posts a week's rows once its main slate is final and the full week the day after its last game. The NFL's stat corrections can still change a score after that, so a week reads final only once those corrections are in.