The Ledger
Week 5, graded
Final. The NFL's stat corrections are in, and this week will not change again.
Quick answer
How did our Week 5 projections do?
Across 105 projected players who played, our PPR medians missed by 6.09 points on average, and 82% of actual scores landed inside the posted P10–P90 range. Among neighboring start/sit pairs with a higher median, that median outscored its neighbor 38 times in 79.
- Players graded
- 105
- Average miss (MAE)
- 6.09
- Inside the posted range
- 82%
- Higher median outscored
- 38 of 79
Start/sit neighbors: among the players who played, we ordered the ones that week's board named by the median we first posted, kept the top 12 QBs, 30 RBs, 36 WRs and 12 TEs among them (the model's replacement-level counts), and paired each with the next one down. All 85 pairs were close calls before kickoff, with bands overlapping by at least half. 6 pairs had equal medians and no call; in the other 79, the higher median outscored its neighbor 38 times.
Graded projections, largest miss first
All 105 graded players are listed, largest miss first.
The miss is the actual score minus our median, so a positive number means the player beat it. Inside means the score landed between the P10 and the P90 we posted.
| Player | Pos | P10 | Median | P90 | Scored | Miss | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | RB | 4.0 | 11.7 | 23.0 | 36.8 | +25.1 | Above |
| Drake Maye | QB | 2.3 | 15.6 | 27.5 | 39.5 | +23.9 | Above |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 3.5 | 10.2 | 20.1 | 31.5 | +21.3 | Above |
| Parker Washington | WR | 2.8 | 9.8 | 20.6 | 30.4 | +20.6 | Above |
| Puka Nacua | WR | 5.1 | 18.1 | 38.0 | 37.7 | +19.6 | Inside |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | 5.4 | 19.1 | 40.2 | 2.9 | -16.2 | Below |
| George Pickens | WR | 3.5 | 12.1 | 25.6 | 28.0 | +15.9 | Above |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 7.8 | 22.9 | 45.1 | 37.7 | +14.8 | Inside |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | 2.0 | 7.7 | 17.2 | 21.5 | +13.8 | Above |
| Tyler Warren | TE | 2.3 | 9.0 | 20.2 | 21.4 | +12.4 | Above |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | 0.0 | 5.4 | 17.5 | 17.2 | +11.8 | Inside |
| Brock Bowers | TE | 3.2 | 12.5 | 27.9 | 23.0 | +10.5 | Inside |
| RJ Harvey | RB | 3.7 | 10.9 | 21.5 | 0.7 | -10.2 | Below |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 0.2 | 5.6 | 18.1 | 15.4 | +9.8 | Inside |
| Tee Higgins | WR | 3.9 | 13.8 | 29.1 | 4.2 | -9.6 | Inside |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 0.2 | 5.1 | 16.6 | 14.2 | +9.1 | Inside |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | 1.6 | 6.2 | 13.8 | 15.2 | +9.0 | Above |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | 8.9 | 18.4 | 28.4 | 27.3 | +8.9 | Inside |
| Jordan Love | QB | 2.1 | 14.4 | 25.4 | 23.3 | +8.9 | Inside |
| David Montgomery | RB | 3.4 | 9.9 | 19.4 | 1.1 | -8.8 | Below |
| Jared Goff | QB | 9.8 | 20.2 | 31.2 | 28.9 | +8.7 | Inside |
| Brian Thomas | WR | 2.4 | 8.5 | 17.8 | 0.0 | -8.5 | Below |
| Aaron Jones | RB | 3.6 | 10.6 | 20.8 | 18.7 | +8.1 | Inside |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | 3.0 | 10.6 | 22.4 | 2.5 | -8.1 | Below |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | 3.0 | 11.9 | 26.6 | 19.8 | +7.9 | Inside |
| Malik Washington | WR | 0.0 | 4.3 | 14.0 | 12.1 | +7.8 | Inside |
| Trey McBride | TE | 3.6 | 14.0 | 31.3 | 21.6 | +7.6 | Inside |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | 3.4 | 10.1 | 19.8 | 2.6 | -7.5 | Below |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 2.3 | 9.2 | 20.4 | 1.7 | -7.5 | Below |
| Harold Fannin | TE | 2.3 | 8.9 | 19.9 | 1.4 | -7.5 | Below |
| James Cook | RB | 5.2 | 15.3 | 30.1 | 22.8 | +7.5 | Inside |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 3.2 | 11.2 | 23.7 | 18.7 | +7.5 | Inside |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | 2.8 | 9.7 | 20.4 | 2.6 | -7.1 | Below |
| Woody Marks | RB | 0.2 | 5.4 | 17.4 | 12.5 | +7.1 | Inside |
| Bo Nix | QB | 2.2 | 15.0 | 26.4 | 7.9 | -7.1 | Inside |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 3.6 | 10.5 | 20.7 | 17.5 | +7.0 | Inside |
| Davante Adams | WR | 4.4 | 15.3 | 32.2 | 22.1 | +6.8 | Inside |
| Chase Brown | RB | 4.7 | 13.6 | 26.8 | 7.0 | -6.6 | Inside |
| Drake London | WR | 3.5 | 12.2 | 25.7 | 18.8 | +6.6 | Inside |
| Chig Okonkwo | TE | 0.0 | 3.5 | 12.0 | 10.0 | +6.5 | Inside |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | 2.1 | 8.2 | 18.2 | 1.7 | -6.5 | Below |
| Josh Allen | QB | 11.3 | 23.3 | 35.9 | 29.5 | +6.2 | Inside |
| Evan Engram | TE | 0.0 | 3.4 | 11.7 | 9.5 | +6.1 | Inside |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 0.1 | 3.7 | 12.0 | 9.8 | +6.1 | Inside |
| C.J. Stroud | QB | 2.2 | 14.9 | 26.2 | 20.9 | +6.0 | Inside |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 1.9 | 7.4 | 16.5 | 13.4 | +6.0 | Inside |
| Oronde Gadsden | TE | 1.5 | 6.0 | 13.4 | 0.0 | -6.0 | Below |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | 8.2 | 17.0 | 26.2 | 22.7 | +5.7 | Inside |
| Brenton Strange | TE | 2.1 | 8.1 | 18.0 | 13.8 | +5.7 | Inside |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 3.6 | 10.6 | 20.9 | 4.9 | -5.7 | Inside |
| Chris Olave | WR | 4.0 | 14.1 | 29.7 | 8.6 | -5.5 | Inside |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 5.2 | 18.3 | 38.6 | 12.9 | -5.4 | Inside |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | 5.6 | 16.3 | 32.0 | 11.2 | -5.1 | Inside |
| DK Metcalf | WR | 2.9 | 10.1 | 21.3 | 5.3 | -4.8 | Inside |
| George Kittle | TE | 3.1 | 12.2 | 27.1 | 7.4 | -4.8 | Inside |
| Sam Darnold | QB | 2.2 | 15.1 | 26.6 | 10.3 | -4.8 | Inside |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | 2.7 | 9.5 | 20.0 | 4.8 | -4.7 | Inside |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 3.2 | 9.4 | 18.6 | 4.8 | -4.6 | Inside |
| Dak Prescott | QB | 9.3 | 19.2 | 29.6 | 14.6 | -4.6 | Inside |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | 0.0 | 5.3 | 17.4 | 9.8 | +4.5 | Inside |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | 4.4 | 12.8 | 25.2 | 17.3 | +4.5 | Inside |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | 0.0 | 4.5 | 14.8 | 0.0 | -4.5 | Inside |
| Chimere Dike | WR | 0.0 | 1.4 | 8.8 | 5.8 | +4.4 | Inside |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | 2.8 | 9.9 | 20.8 | 5.7 | -4.2 | Inside |
| Rome Odunze | WR | 2.6 | 9.2 | 19.3 | 5.0 | -4.2 | Inside |
| Michael Wilson | WR | 3.2 | 11.4 | 23.9 | 7.3 | -4.1 | Inside |
| Jake Ferguson | TE | 2.3 | 9.0 | 20.1 | 4.9 | -4.1 | Inside |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 2.4 | 9.6 | 21.3 | 5.6 | -4.0 | Inside |
| Nico Collins | WR | 4.1 | 14.4 | 30.4 | 10.6 | -3.8 | Inside |
| Zach Ertz | TE | 0.0 | 3.6 | 12.5 | 0.0 | -3.6 | Inside |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 5.5 | 19.4 | 40.8 | 22.8 | +3.4 | Inside |
| Colston Loveland | TE | 1.8 | 7.1 | 15.7 | 3.9 | -3.2 | Inside |
| Mark Andrews | TE | 2.0 | 8.0 | 17.8 | 4.8 | -3.2 | Inside |
| Tyrone Tracy | RB | 0.0 | 1.9 | 11.3 | 5.1 | +3.2 | Inside |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | 2.2 | 8.6 | 19.2 | 11.6 | +3.0 | Inside |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 2.4 | 8.4 | 17.6 | 11.3 | +2.9 | Inside |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | 6.3 | 18.5 | 36.5 | 15.8 | -2.7 | Inside |
| Gunnar Helm | TE | 0.0 | 2.5 | 8.7 | 0.0 | -2.5 | Inside |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | 4.5 | 13.1 | 25.9 | 10.7 | -2.4 | Inside |
| Derrick Henry | RB | 5.7 | 16.6 | 32.7 | 19.0 | +2.4 | Inside |
| Josh Downs | WR | 0.0 | 5.3 | 17.5 | 7.7 | +2.4 | Inside |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | 2.1 | 8.3 | 18.6 | 6.0 | -2.3 | Inside |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | 2.5 | 8.8 | 18.5 | 11.0 | +2.2 | Inside |
| Theo Johnson | TE | 0.0 | 3.4 | 11.7 | 5.5 | +2.1 | Inside |
| Javonte Williams | RB | 5.5 | 16.1 | 31.7 | 14.2 | -1.9 | Inside |
| Justin Herbert | QB | 1.9 | 13.1 | 23.1 | 11.2 | -1.9 | Inside |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | 3.3 | 9.8 | 19.2 | 8.0 | -1.8 | Inside |
| Kyren Williams | RB | 6.1 | 17.9 | 35.3 | 19.6 | +1.7 | Inside |
| AJ Barner | TE | 1.7 | 6.6 | 14.8 | 5.0 | -1.6 | Inside |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | 2.1 | 14.6 | 25.7 | 13.0 | -1.6 | Inside |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 0.0 | 5.0 | 16.3 | 3.5 | -1.5 | Inside |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | 0.2 | 5.1 | 16.4 | 3.6 | -1.5 | Inside |
| Cole Kmet | TE | 0.0 | 3.0 | 10.3 | 1.8 | -1.2 | Inside |
| Kenny Gainwell | RB | 0.2 | 4.7 | 15.3 | 5.8 | +1.1 | Inside |
| Cade Otton | TE | 1.7 | 6.5 | 14.4 | 5.5 | -1.0 | Inside |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR | 0.0 | 3.9 | 12.8 | 4.9 | +1.0 | Inside |
| Tre Tucker | WR | 2.4 | 8.4 | 17.6 | 7.5 | -0.9 | Inside |
| Elic Ayomanor | WR | 0.0 | 3.5 | 11.6 | 2.7 | -0.8 | Inside |
| Zay Flowers | WR | 4.0 | 13.9 | 29.3 | 14.6 | +0.7 | Inside |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | 0.0 | 4.9 | 15.9 | 4.3 | -0.6 | Inside |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | 5.8 | 16.8 | 33.2 | 17.3 | +0.5 | Inside |
| Troy Franklin | WR | 0.0 | 4.0 | 13.1 | 3.6 | -0.4 | Inside |
| Darnell Mooney | WR | 0.0 | 3.6 | 11.7 | 3.4 | -0.2 | Inside |
| Luther Burden | WR | 2.6 | 9.1 | 19.2 | 8.9 | -0.2 | Inside |
| Tony Pollard | RB | 0.2 | 5.4 | 17.6 | 5.2 | -0.2 | Inside |
What moved after the first posting
The grade uses the first posting, from Oct 6, 2026. The weekly model re-runs daily and the week's hub picks up each run within the hour, but a re-run never changes the grade. The last re-run for this week came on Oct 12, 2026.
17 medians moved a full point or more by the last re-run; the 5 named by that week's board are listed below.
| Player | Pos | First posting | Last re-run | Change | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | 5.4 | 8.3 | +2.9 | 17.2 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 3.7 | 1.9 | -1.8 | 9.8 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | 18.5 | 19.7 | +1.2 | 15.8 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | 16.6 | 15.4 | -1.2 | 19.0 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | 13.9 | 12.9 | -1.0 | 14.6 |
34 players in the first posting were gone from the last re-run. The weekly model removes a player whose designation reads Doubtful, Out, IR, PUP or suspended.
The week's summary row sits on the accuracy record; its newest projections are on the week's hub.
FAQ
What exactly gets graded here?
The first weekly PPR projection we posted for each player, ahead of that week's opening kickoff. Half-PPR, standard and the daily-fantasy numbers are not graded, and the draft board's season projections are judged by their backtest, never by rows on this page.
Why list the misses first?
A scorecard sorted by its best rows is a brochure. The Ledger sorts on how far each projection missed, so the calls that went furthest wrong come first and the ones that landed near the median follow at the same precision.
When does a start/sit pair count as close?
When the two bands overlapped by at least half of the narrower one, or when the two medians printed the same. That is the start/sit comparer's rule; the Ledger applies it to the numbers first posted before kickoff, so the label never depends on the score.
Why are neighboring pairs almost always close?
Weekly ranges run wide, because a single game carries a lot of noise, and two players a rank apart usually share most of their P10–P90 range. The comparer calls those leans, and the neighbor record is a count of how leans broke, not a tally of clean wins.
When does a week stop changing?
The grading run posts a week's rows once its main slate is final and the full week the day after its last game. The NFL's stat corrections can still change a score after that, so a week reads final only once those corrections are in.