The Ledger
Week 2, graded
Final. The NFL's stat corrections are in, and this week will not change again.
Quick answer
How did our Week 2 projections do?
Across 307 projected players who played, our PPR medians missed by 4.62 points on average, and 82% of actual scores landed inside the posted P10–P90 range. Among neighboring start/sit pairs with a higher median, that median outscored its neighbor 33 times in 64.
- Players graded
- 307
- Average miss (MAE)
- 4.62
- Inside the posted range
- 82%
- Higher median outscored
- 33 of 64
Start/sit neighbors: among the players who played, we ordered the ones that week's board named by the median we first posted, kept the top 12 QBs, 30 RBs, 36 WRs and 12 TEs among them (the model's replacement-level counts), and paired each with the next one down. All 86 pairs were close calls before kickoff, with bands overlapping by at least half. 22 pairs had equal medians and no call; in the other 64, the higher median outscored its neighbor 33 times.
Graded projections, largest miss first
129 of the 307 graded players were on the board we published for that week and are listed here, largest miss first; the other 178 count in the totals above but were off the board, so they go unlisted.
The miss is the actual score minus our median, so a positive number means the player beat it. Inside means the score landed between the P10 and the P90 we posted.
| Player | Pos | P10 | Median | P90 | Scored | Miss | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 3.8 | 13.4 | 28.3 | 42.5 | +29.1 | Above |
| Davante Adams | WR | 3.7 | 12.9 | 27.1 | 39.5 | +26.6 | Above |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | 3.6 | 12.6 | 26.5 | 35.3 | +22.7 | Above |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 3.9 | 13.6 | 28.6 | 35.2 | +21.6 | Above |
| Josh Allen | QB | 10.1 | 21.1 | 32.5 | 40.8 | +19.7 | Above |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | 2.0 | 7.7 | 17.1 | 26.0 | +18.3 | Above |
| Tre Tucker | WR | 0.0 | 4.6 | 15.0 | 22.9 | +18.3 | Above |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | 2.8 | 9.8 | 20.6 | 27.7 | +17.9 | Above |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | 0.0 | 5.1 | 16.7 | 21.8 | +16.7 | Above |
| Travis Kelce | TE | 2.4 | 9.2 | 20.4 | 25.1 | +15.9 | Above |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | 4.7 | 13.8 | 27.1 | 29.2 | +15.4 | Above |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 2.2 | 8.5 | 18.9 | 22.5 | +14.0 | Above |
| Jaxson Dart | QB | 2.1 | 14.5 | 25.1 | 0.8 | -13.7 | Below |
| Kenneth Walker | RB | 3.5 | 10.1 | 19.8 | 23.8 | +13.7 | Above |
| Jared Goff | QB | 7.9 | 16.4 | 25.3 | 29.8 | +13.4 | Above |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 3.9 | 13.7 | 28.8 | 26.5 | +12.8 | Inside |
| Dak Prescott | QB | 8.2 | 17.2 | 26.5 | 29.8 | +12.6 | Above |
| Chris Olave | WR | 3.0 | 10.4 | 21.9 | 22.6 | +12.2 | Above |
| Jake Ferguson | TE | 2.2 | 8.4 | 18.7 | 20.3 | +11.9 | Above |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | 2.9 | 10.0 | 21.1 | 21.7 | +11.7 | Above |
| Parker Washington | WR | 0.0 | 5.2 | 16.9 | 16.8 | +11.6 | Inside |
| Bryce Young | QB | 2.0 | 13.4 | 23.1 | 24.1 | +10.7 | Above |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 8.8 | 18.3 | 28.2 | 29.0 | +10.7 | Above |
| DJ Moore | WR | 2.8 | 9.8 | 20.6 | -0.1 | -9.9 | Below |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | 8.7 | 18.1 | 27.8 | 28.0 | +9.9 | Above |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | 4.3 | 12.4 | 24.4 | 3.0 | -9.4 | Below |
| Josh Downs | WR | 0.0 | 5.1 | 16.6 | 14.2 | +9.1 | Inside |
| Adonai Mitchell | WR | 0.0 | 3.4 | 11.2 | 12.3 | +8.9 | Above |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | 2.3 | 15.7 | 27.1 | 7.2 | -8.5 | Inside |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | 2.3 | 8.7 | 19.4 | 17.2 | +8.5 | Inside |
| Caleb Williams | QB | 8.3 | 17.2 | 26.5 | 8.7 | -8.5 | Inside |
| Rachaad White | RB | 0.2 | 5.9 | 19.3 | 14.3 | +8.4 | Inside |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 2.7 | 9.4 | 19.7 | 1.5 | -7.9 | Below |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | 2.9 | 10.3 | 21.6 | 2.4 | -7.9 | Below |
| Drake Maye | QB | 8.1 | 16.8 | 25.9 | 9.0 | -7.8 | Inside |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 5.4 | 15.7 | 31.0 | 23.3 | +7.6 | Inside |
| Trey McBride | TE | 2.8 | 10.6 | 23.8 | 18.1 | +7.5 | Inside |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 2.7 | 9.4 | 19.7 | 1.9 | -7.5 | Below |
| Colston Loveland | TE | 2.2 | 8.6 | 19.1 | 1.3 | -7.3 | Below |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | 2.3 | 8.7 | 19.5 | 1.4 | -7.3 | Below |
| Marquise Brown | WR | 2.4 | 8.2 | 17.3 | 1.2 | -7.0 | Below |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 3.6 | 10.4 | 20.4 | 3.6 | -6.8 | Inside |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 3.5 | 10.3 | 20.2 | 3.6 | -6.7 | Inside |
| Justin Herbert | QB | 7.9 | 16.5 | 25.4 | 9.9 | -6.6 | Inside |
| Alec Pierce | WR | 2.5 | 8.7 | 18.3 | 2.1 | -6.6 | Below |
| Tyler Warren | TE | 2.0 | 7.8 | 17.3 | 14.4 | +6.6 | Inside |
| George Kittle | TE | 3.1 | 11.8 | 26.4 | 18.0 | +6.2 | Inside |
| James Cook | RB | 5.0 | 14.7 | 28.9 | 20.9 | +6.2 | Inside |
| Theo Johnson | TE | 1.6 | 6.2 | 13.9 | 0.0 | -6.2 | Below |
| Tyrone Tracy | RB | 0.2 | 5.9 | 19.1 | 0.0 | -5.9 | Below |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | 2.4 | 9.2 | 20.6 | 3.5 | -5.7 | Inside |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | 3.1 | 8.9 | 17.5 | 14.4 | +5.5 | Inside |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 2.7 | 9.6 | 20.2 | 15.1 | +5.5 | Inside |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | 2.0 | 7.9 | 17.6 | 2.5 | -5.4 | Inside |
| David Montgomery | RB | 3.3 | 9.7 | 19.1 | 4.4 | -5.3 | Inside |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 4.2 | 12.2 | 24.0 | 17.5 | +5.3 | Inside |
| Malik Washington | WR | 0.0 | 3.5 | 11.2 | 8.7 | +5.2 | Inside |
| Marvin Harrison | WR | 0.0 | 5.2 | 17.0 | 0.0 | -5.2 | Inside |
| Travis Etienne | RB | 3.5 | 10.3 | 20.2 | 5.1 | -5.2 | Inside |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | 2.5 | 8.9 | 18.7 | 3.8 | -5.1 | Inside |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 3.0 | 10.4 | 21.9 | 5.3 | -5.1 | Inside |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | 2.4 | 8.4 | 17.7 | 13.5 | +5.1 | Inside |
| Elic Ayomanor | WR | 0.0 | 3.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | +5.0 | Inside |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | 2.9 | 10.2 | 21.5 | 5.5 | -4.7 | Inside |
| Jordan Addison | WR | 2.5 | 8.6 | 18.1 | 4.1 | -4.5 | Inside |
| Michael Wilson | WR | 2.4 | 8.3 | 17.5 | 3.8 | -4.5 | Inside |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 0.2 | 4.6 | 15.1 | 9.0 | +4.4 | Inside |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR | 0.0 | 4.3 | 14.1 | 0.0 | -4.3 | Inside |
| Breece Hall | RB | 3.4 | 10.0 | 19.7 | 14.2 | +4.2 | Inside |
| David Njoku | TE | 1.6 | 6.1 | 13.6 | 1.9 | -4.2 | Inside |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | 0.2 | 5.6 | 18.3 | 9.8 | +4.2 | Inside |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | 6.4 | 18.7 | 36.8 | 22.6 | +3.9 | Inside |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | 2.5 | 8.7 | 18.3 | 12.6 | +3.9 | Inside |
| Javonte Williams | RB | 4.0 | 11.8 | 23.1 | 8.0 | -3.8 | Inside |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | 3.5 | 10.2 | 20.0 | 6.4 | -3.8 | Inside |
| Tee Higgins | WR | 3.1 | 10.7 | 22.5 | 14.5 | +3.8 | Inside |
| Chimere Dike | WR | 0.0 | 3.7 | 12.1 | 0.0 | -3.7 | Inside |
| Colby Parkinson | TE | 1.8 | 7.1 | 15.8 | 3.5 | -3.6 | Inside |
| Cole Kmet | TE | 0.0 | 3.6 | 12.5 | 0.0 | -3.6 | Inside |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 1.8 | 7.0 | 15.5 | 10.6 | +3.6 | Inside |
| Derrick Henry | RB | 4.9 | 14.2 | 27.9 | 17.7 | +3.5 | Inside |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | 2.9 | 10.0 | 21.0 | 6.5 | -3.5 | Inside |
| Mark Andrews | TE | 1.9 | 7.5 | 16.8 | 10.9 | +3.4 | Inside |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | 5.0 | 14.4 | 28.4 | 11.1 | -3.3 | Inside |
| Evan Engram | TE | 1.6 | 6.0 | 13.5 | 2.7 | -3.3 | Inside |
| Harold Fannin | TE | 1.9 | 7.2 | 16.1 | 10.4 | +3.2 | Inside |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | 2.8 | 9.9 | 20.9 | 6.8 | -3.1 | Inside |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | 2.9 | 10.1 | 21.2 | 7.0 | -3.1 | Inside |
| Brenton Strange | TE | 1.7 | 6.7 | 15.0 | 3.7 | -3.0 | Inside |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | 7.7 | 16.1 | 24.9 | 13.2 | -2.9 | Inside |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | 2.6 | 9.2 | 19.3 | 6.5 | -2.7 | Inside |
| Woody Marks | RB | 0.2 | 5.8 | 18.7 | 8.5 | +2.7 | Inside |
| C.J. Stroud | QB | 2.1 | 14.4 | 24.9 | 17.0 | +2.6 | Inside |
| Darnell Mooney | WR | 0.0 | 4.3 | 14.1 | 6.8 | +2.5 | Inside |
| Drake London | WR | 3.2 | 11.4 | 23.9 | 8.9 | -2.5 | Inside |
| George Pickens | WR | 3.6 | 12.5 | 26.3 | 10.0 | -2.5 | Inside |
| Oronde Gadsden | TE | 1.9 | 7.3 | 16.3 | 9.8 | +2.5 | Inside |
| Kyren Williams | RB | 4.6 | 13.3 | 26.2 | 15.7 | +2.4 | Inside |
| Rome Odunze | WR | 2.8 | 9.7 | 20.4 | 7.3 | -2.4 | Inside |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | 8.7 | 18.1 | 28.0 | 15.8 | -2.3 | Inside |
| Luther Burden | WR | 2.4 | 8.3 | 17.4 | 6.2 | -2.1 | Inside |
| Tony Pollard | RB | 0.2 | 5.4 | 17.7 | 7.5 | +2.1 | Inside |
| DK Metcalf | WR | 2.5 | 8.7 | 18.4 | 6.7 | -2.0 | Inside |
| Kyle Monangai | RB | 0.2 | 5.8 | 18.9 | 7.8 | +2.0 | Inside |
| Brian Thomas | WR | 2.5 | 8.9 | 18.8 | 7.0 | -1.9 | Inside |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | 0.0 | 5.0 | 16.2 | 6.9 | +1.9 | Inside |
| Cade Otton | TE | 1.8 | 7.1 | 15.8 | 8.8 | +1.7 | Inside |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 3.9 | 11.4 | 22.5 | 13.0 | +1.6 | Inside |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | 2.9 | 10.0 | 21.1 | 8.5 | -1.5 | Inside |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | 8.0 | 16.7 | 25.7 | 18.2 | +1.5 | Inside |
| AJ Barner | TE | 1.7 | 6.5 | 14.4 | 7.9 | +1.4 | Inside |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | 1.6 | 6.0 | 13.5 | 7.4 | +1.4 | Inside |
| Troy Franklin | WR | 0.0 | 5.1 | 16.5 | 3.7 | -1.4 | Inside |
| Aaron Jones | RB | 3.2 | 9.4 | 18.4 | 10.5 | +1.1 | Inside |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 0.0 | 5.1 | 16.4 | 4.0 | -1.1 | Inside |
| Jordan Love | QB | 2.2 | 14.9 | 25.7 | 13.8 | -1.1 | Inside |
| Kenny Gainwell | RB | 0.2 | 5.5 | 17.9 | 4.5 | -1.0 | Inside |
| Bo Nix | QB | 7.7 | 16.1 | 24.8 | 15.1 | -1.0 | Inside |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | 4.1 | 12.0 | 23.6 | 12.9 | +0.9 | Inside |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | 2.7 | 9.4 | 19.7 | 10.3 | +0.9 | Inside |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 2.0 | 7.9 | 17.6 | 7.0 | -0.9 | Inside |
| Chase Brown | RB | 4.1 | 12.0 | 23.6 | 11.2 | -0.8 | Inside |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | 0.2 | 4.6 | 14.8 | 3.9 | -0.7 | Inside |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | 3.1 | 9.1 | 17.9 | 9.7 | +0.6 | Inside |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 0.2 | 5.3 | 17.2 | 5.8 | +0.5 | Inside |
| Gunnar Helm | TE | 0.0 | 2.9 | 10.0 | 3.3 | +0.4 | Inside |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | 1.6 | 6.3 | 14.0 | 5.9 | -0.4 | Inside |
| De'Von Achane | RB | 4.1 | 12.0 | 23.5 | 12.3 | +0.3 | Inside |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | 3.5 | 10.1 | 19.9 | 10.3 | +0.2 | Inside |
What moved after the first posting
The grade uses the first posting, from Sep 15, 2026. The weekly model re-runs daily and the week's hub picks up each run within the hour, but a re-run never changes the grade. The last re-run for this week came on Sep 21, 2026.
85 medians moved a full point or more by the last re-run; the 51 named by that week's board are listed below.
| Player | Pos | First posting | Last re-run | Change | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Monangai | RB | 5.8 | 10.0 | +4.2 | 7.8 |
| Parker Washington | WR | 5.2 | 9.2 | +4.0 | 16.8 |
| Kenneth Walker | RB | 10.1 | 14.0 | +3.9 | 23.8 |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | 8.7 | 4.9 | -3.8 | 12.6 |
| Jordan Addison | WR | 8.6 | 4.9 | -3.7 | 4.1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | 5.1 | 8.3 | +3.2 | 21.8 |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | 8.4 | 5.2 | -3.2 | 13.5 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | 14.2 | 17.1 | +2.9 | 17.7 |
| Luther Burden | WR | 8.3 | 5.4 | -2.9 | 6.2 |
| Jonnu Smith | TE | 3.5 | 6.3 | +2.8 | Did not play |
| Josh Allen | QB | 21.1 | 23.9 | +2.8 | 40.8 |
| Marquise Brown | WR | 8.2 | 5.4 | -2.8 | 1.2 |
| Cole Kmet | TE | 3.6 | 6.3 | +2.7 | 0.0 |
| Theo Johnson | TE | 6.2 | 3.6 | -2.6 | 0.0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | 10.1 | 12.6 | +2.5 | 10.3 |
| David Montgomery | RB | 9.7 | 12.2 | +2.5 | 4.4 |
| Bryce Young | QB | 13.4 | 15.8 | +2.4 | 24.1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 15.7 | 18.1 | +2.4 | 23.3 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | 12.0 | 14.3 | +2.3 | 12.9 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | 9.2 | 11.3 | +2.1 | 6.5 |
| Chimere Dike | WR | 3.7 | 1.8 | -1.9 | 0.0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | 8.9 | 10.8 | +1.9 | 14.4 |
| Javonte Williams | RB | 11.8 | 13.7 | +1.9 | 8.0 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | 10.0 | 11.9 | +1.9 | 8.5 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 13.6 | 15.4 | +1.8 | 35.2 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | 14.4 | 16.2 | +1.8 | 11.1 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | 8.7 | 10.5 | +1.8 | 1.4 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | 18.1 | 16.4 | -1.7 | 28.0 |
| Chris Olave | WR | 10.4 | 12.0 | +1.6 | 22.6 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 8.5 | 10.1 | +1.6 | 22.5 |
| Mike Gesicki | TE | 5.7 | 7.2 | +1.5 | Did not play |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 11.4 | 12.8 | +1.4 | 13.0 |
| Colston Loveland | TE | 8.6 | 7.2 | -1.4 | 1.3 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 13.7 | 12.3 | -1.4 | 26.5 |
| Trey McBride | TE | 10.6 | 12.0 | +1.4 | 18.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | 15.7 | 17.0 | +1.3 | 7.2 |
| Breece Hall | RB | 10.0 | 11.2 | +1.2 | 14.2 |
| George Kittle | TE | 11.8 | 10.6 | -1.2 | 18.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 13.4 | 14.6 | +1.2 | 42.5 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | 13.8 | 15.0 | +1.2 | 29.2 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 9.4 | 8.2 | -1.2 | 1.9 |
| Bo Nix | QB | 16.1 | 15.0 | -1.1 | 15.1 |
| Evan Engram | TE | 6.0 | 7.1 | +1.1 | 2.7 |
| Jaxson Dart | QB | 14.5 | 15.6 | +1.1 | 0.8 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | 10.0 | 11.1 | +1.1 | 6.5 |
| Davante Adams | WR | 12.9 | 11.9 | -1.0 | 39.5 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | 16.7 | 17.7 | +1.0 | 18.2 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 9.4 | 8.4 | -1.0 | 1.5 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | 7.9 | 6.9 | -1.0 | 2.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | 18.1 | 19.1 | +1.0 | 15.8 |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | 6.0 | 7.0 | +1.0 | 7.4 |
24 players in the first posting were gone from the last re-run. The weekly model removes a player whose designation reads Doubtful, Out, IR, PUP or suspended.
The week's summary row sits on the accuracy record; its newest projections are on the week's hub.
FAQ
What exactly gets graded here?
The first weekly PPR projection we posted for each player, ahead of that week's opening kickoff. Half-PPR, standard and the daily-fantasy numbers are not graded, and the draft board's season projections are judged by their backtest, never by rows on this page.
Why list the misses first?
A scorecard sorted by its best rows is a brochure. The Ledger sorts on how far each projection missed, so the calls that went furthest wrong come first and the ones that landed near the median follow at the same precision.
When does a start/sit pair count as close?
When the two bands overlapped by at least half of the narrower one, or when the two medians printed the same. That is the start/sit comparer's rule; the Ledger applies it to the numbers first posted before kickoff, so the label never depends on the score.
Why are neighboring pairs almost always close?
Weekly ranges run wide, because a single game carries a lot of noise, and two players a rank apart usually share most of their P10–P90 range. The comparer calls those leans, and the neighbor record is a count of how leans broke, not a tally of clean wins.
When does a week stop changing?
The grading run posts a week's rows once its main slate is final and the full week the day after its last game. The NFL's stat corrections can still change a score after that, so a week reads final only once those corrections are in.