The Ledger
Week 1, graded
Final. The NFL's stat corrections are in, and this week will not change again.
Quick answer
How did our Week 1 projections do?
Across 312 projected players who played, our PPR medians missed by 4.69 points on average, and 82% of actual scores landed inside the posted P10–P90 range. Among neighboring start/sit pairs with a higher median, that median outscored its neighbor 34 times in 72.
- Players graded
- 312
- Average miss (MAE)
- 4.69
- Inside the posted range
- 82%
- Higher median outscored
- 34 of 72
Start/sit neighbors: among the players who played, we ordered the ones that week's board named by the median we first posted, kept the top 12 QBs, 30 RBs, 36 WRs and 12 TEs among them (the model's replacement-level counts), and paired each with the next one down. All 86 pairs were close calls before kickoff, with bands overlapping by at least half. 14 pairs had equal medians and no call; in the other 72, the higher median outscored its neighbor 34 times.
Graded projections, largest miss first
141 of the 312 graded players were on the board we published for that week and are listed here, largest miss first; the other 171 count in the totals above but were off the board, so they go unlisted.
The miss is the actual score minus our median, so a positive number means the player beat it. Inside means the score landed between the P10 and the P90 we posted.
| Player | Pos | P10 | Median | P90 | Scored | Miss | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker | RB | 3.5 | 10.3 | 20.3 | 34.1 | +23.8 | Above |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | 3.8 | 11.1 | 21.8 | 32.7 | +21.6 | Above |
| Derrick Henry | RB | 4.7 | 13.8 | 27.1 | 35.3 | +21.5 | Above |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | 3.9 | 11.5 | 22.5 | 32.4 | +20.9 | Above |
| Caleb Williams | QB | 7.9 | 16.4 | 25.2 | 37.3 | +20.9 | Above |
| Bryce Young | QB | 2.0 | 13.4 | 23.2 | 32.4 | +19.0 | Above |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | 3.0 | 10.4 | 21.9 | 29.2 | +18.8 | Above |
| David Montgomery | RB | 3.6 | 10.5 | 20.7 | 28.9 | +18.4 | Above |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | 4.8 | 14.0 | 27.5 | 31.3 | +17.3 | Above |
| Chris Olave | WR | 3.1 | 11.0 | 23.2 | 28.2 | +17.2 | Above |
| Josh Allen | QB | 9.0 | 18.7 | 28.8 | 35.7 | +17.0 | Above |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 5.8 | 17.0 | 33.5 | 33.6 | +16.6 | Above |
| Kyle Monangai | RB | 0.2 | 5.5 | 18.0 | 20.4 | +14.9 | Above |
| Zay Flowers | WR | 3.2 | 11.1 | 23.3 | 26.0 | +14.9 | Above |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | 3.1 | 8.9 | 17.6 | 23.7 | +14.8 | Above |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | 2.4 | 9.2 | 20.5 | 23.7 | +14.5 | Above |
| Sam Darnold | QB | 2.1 | 14.6 | 25.2 | 0.5 | -14.1 | Below |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 4.2 | 14.7 | 30.9 | 28.7 | +14.0 | Inside |
| Trey McBride | TE | 2.7 | 10.5 | 23.5 | 24.5 | +14.0 | Above |
| Javonte Williams | RB | 3.9 | 11.4 | 22.5 | 24.2 | +12.8 | Above |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 3.9 | 13.8 | 29.0 | 26.2 | +12.4 | Inside |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | 8.4 | 17.5 | 27.0 | 5.1 | -12.4 | Below |
| Mike Gesicki | TE | 1.7 | 6.4 | 14.4 | 18.8 | +12.4 | Above |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 4.4 | 15.4 | 32.3 | 3.2 | -12.2 | Below |
| DJ Moore | WR | 2.7 | 9.3 | 19.6 | 21.0 | +11.7 | Above |
| Jaxson Dart | QB | 2.2 | 15.3 | 26.5 | 26.6 | +11.3 | Above |
| Parker Washington | WR | 2.4 | 8.4 | 17.7 | 19.3 | +10.9 | Above |
| Evan Engram | TE | 0.0 | 3.6 | 12.3 | 14.3 | +10.7 | Above |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | 5.0 | 14.5 | 28.5 | 25.1 | +10.6 | Inside |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 1.9 | 7.5 | 16.8 | 18.0 | +10.5 | Above |
| Nico Collins | WR | 3.1 | 10.9 | 23.0 | 21.2 | +10.3 | Inside |
| Breece Hall | RB | 3.3 | 9.7 | 19.1 | 19.8 | +10.1 | Above |
| Tyrone Tracy | RB | 3.2 | 9.3 | 18.2 | -0.6 | -9.9 | Below |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | 2.4 | 8.5 | 17.9 | 18.0 | +9.5 | Above |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | 2.7 | 9.4 | 19.7 | 0.0 | -9.4 | Below |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | 8.1 | 16.9 | 26.0 | 26.1 | +9.2 | Above |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 3.9 | 11.2 | 22.1 | 20.3 | +9.1 | Inside |
| Jordan Addison | WR | 2.5 | 8.9 | 18.8 | 0.0 | -8.9 | Below |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | 1.7 | 6.7 | 15.0 | 15.6 | +8.9 | Above |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | 3.1 | 10.7 | 22.5 | 19.2 | +8.5 | Inside |
| Bo Nix | QB | 2.2 | 14.7 | 25.4 | 6.4 | -8.3 | Inside |
| Colston Loveland | TE | 2.1 | 8.2 | 18.2 | 0.0 | -8.2 | Below |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | 2.4 | 8.2 | 17.4 | 0.0 | -8.2 | Below |
| Cole Kmet | TE | 0.0 | 3.5 | 11.9 | 11.5 | +8.0 | Inside |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 0.2 | 4.9 | 16.0 | 12.6 | +7.7 | Inside |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | 2.0 | 7.7 | 17.1 | 0.0 | -7.7 | Below |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | 3.1 | 11.0 | 23.2 | 3.7 | -7.3 | Inside |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | 8.5 | 17.7 | 27.2 | 25.0 | +7.3 | Inside |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | 8.4 | 17.5 | 27.1 | 24.7 | +7.2 | Inside |
| Adonai Mitchell | WR | 0.0 | 1.8 | 11.0 | 9.0 | +7.2 | Inside |
| George Kittle | TE | 2.7 | 10.3 | 22.9 | 3.2 | -7.1 | Inside |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | 2.4 | 8.3 | 17.4 | 1.2 | -7.1 | Below |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | 1.7 | 6.5 | 14.5 | 13.6 | +7.1 | Inside |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 1.9 | 7.4 | 16.4 | 14.4 | +7.0 | Inside |
| Davante Adams | WR | 3.6 | 12.5 | 26.3 | 5.6 | -6.9 | Inside |
| Jordan Mason | RB | 0.2 | 5.4 | 17.4 | 11.9 | +6.5 | Inside |
| Kenny Gainwell | RB | 3.2 | 9.2 | 18.1 | 2.8 | -6.4 | Below |
| Jordan Love | QB | 2.1 | 14.1 | 24.4 | 20.5 | +6.4 | Inside |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | 2.7 | 9.4 | 19.9 | 3.1 | -6.3 | Inside |
| George Pickens | WR | 3.5 | 12.1 | 25.6 | 5.8 | -6.3 | Inside |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | 2.7 | 9.3 | 19.6 | 15.5 | +6.2 | Inside |
| A.J. Brown | WR | 3.4 | 11.7 | 24.7 | 5.6 | -6.1 | Inside |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | 3.5 | 10.2 | 20.1 | 4.1 | -6.1 | Inside |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 3.3 | 9.6 | 18.8 | 3.6 | -6.0 | Inside |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | 2.7 | 9.3 | 19.6 | 3.4 | -5.9 | Inside |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 8.1 | 16.8 | 25.9 | 22.7 | +5.9 | Inside |
| Jake Ferguson | TE | 2.1 | 8.2 | 18.2 | 2.6 | -5.6 | Inside |
| Drake London | WR | 3.1 | 11.0 | 23.2 | 5.5 | -5.5 | Inside |
| Chase Brown | RB | 4.6 | 13.5 | 26.5 | 18.8 | +5.3 | Inside |
| Colby Parkinson | TE | 1.8 | 6.9 | 15.3 | 1.6 | -5.3 | Below |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 3.3 | 9.5 | 18.7 | 14.5 | +5.0 | Inside |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 4.5 | 13.1 | 25.7 | 8.3 | -4.8 | Inside |
| Theo Johnson | TE | 1.7 | 6.6 | 14.7 | 1.9 | -4.7 | Inside |
| David Njoku | TE | 1.6 | 6.2 | 13.8 | 10.8 | +4.6 | Inside |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | 0.2 | 4.4 | 14.3 | 9.0 | +4.6 | Inside |
| Tony Pollard | RB | 3.1 | 8.9 | 17.6 | 4.4 | -4.5 | Inside |
| Luther Burden | WR | 0.0 | 5.2 | 17.0 | 9.5 | +4.3 | Inside |
| Troy Franklin | WR | 0.0 | 4.7 | 15.2 | 0.5 | -4.2 | Inside |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | 2.3 | 15.8 | 27.2 | 11.6 | -4.2 | Inside |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | 4.5 | 13.1 | 25.7 | 9.0 | -4.1 | Inside |
| Elic Ayomanor | WR | 0.0 | 4.3 | 13.8 | 8.1 | +3.8 | Inside |
| Travis Etienne | RB | 3.8 | 11.0 | 21.7 | 14.8 | +3.8 | Inside |
| Puka Nacua | WR | 4.6 | 16.1 | 33.9 | 12.4 | -3.7 | Inside |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | 0.0 | 5.1 | 16.6 | 1.4 | -3.7 | Inside |
| Gunnar Helm | TE | 0.0 | 3.2 | 11.0 | 6.8 | +3.6 | Inside |
| Justin Herbert | QB | 8.5 | 17.6 | 27.2 | 14.3 | -3.3 | Inside |
| AJ Barner | TE | 1.7 | 6.6 | 14.8 | 3.3 | -3.3 | Inside |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | 3.5 | 12.2 | 25.7 | 15.4 | +3.2 | Inside |
| Harold Fannin | TE | 1.9 | 7.3 | 16.3 | 4.1 | -3.2 | Inside |
| Brenton Strange | TE | 1.9 | 7.2 | 16.0 | 10.3 | +3.1 | Inside |
| James Cook | RB | 4.5 | 13.0 | 25.6 | 9.9 | -3.1 | Inside |
| Tee Higgins | WR | 3.4 | 12.0 | 25.2 | 8.9 | -3.1 | Inside |
| C.J. Stroud | QB | 2.0 | 13.5 | 23.3 | 16.5 | +3.0 | Inside |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | 2.7 | 9.5 | 20.1 | 12.2 | +2.7 | Inside |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 3.2 | 11.2 | 23.7 | 8.5 | -2.7 | Inside |
| Drake Maye | QB | 2.3 | 15.5 | 26.8 | 12.8 | -2.7 | Inside |
| Brian Thomas | WR | 2.7 | 9.6 | 20.1 | 7.0 | -2.6 | Inside |
| Kyren Williams | RB | 4.4 | 12.9 | 25.4 | 15.5 | +2.6 | Inside |
| Malik Washington | WR | 0.0 | 3.7 | 12.0 | 6.3 | +2.6 | Inside |
| Oronde Gadsden | TE | 2.0 | 7.8 | 17.4 | 5.2 | -2.6 | Inside |
| Chimere Dike | WR | 0.0 | 4.1 | 13.3 | 1.7 | -2.4 | Inside |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | 5.6 | 16.2 | 31.9 | 13.8 | -2.4 | Inside |
| Michael Wilson | WR | 2.4 | 8.2 | 17.3 | 10.6 | +2.4 | Inside |
| De'Von Achane | RB | 4.4 | 12.8 | 25.1 | 10.6 | -2.2 | Inside |
| Tyler Warren | TE | 2.1 | 8.1 | 18.2 | 10.3 | +2.2 | Inside |
| Chig Okonkwo | TE | 1.5 | 5.7 | 12.8 | 3.6 | -2.1 | Inside |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | 2.6 | 9.2 | 19.4 | 11.3 | +2.1 | Inside |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | 2.9 | 10.3 | 21.6 | 8.3 | -2.0 | Inside |
| Rome Odunze | WR | 2.6 | 9.2 | 19.5 | 7.2 | -2.0 | Inside |
| DK Metcalf | WR | 2.8 | 9.7 | 20.5 | 8.0 | -1.7 | Inside |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 1.9 | 7.3 | 16.3 | 5.6 | -1.7 | Inside |
| Travis Kelce | TE | 2.2 | 8.4 | 18.8 | 10.1 | +1.7 | Inside |
| Mark Andrews | TE | 1.9 | 7.3 | 16.4 | 8.9 | +1.6 | Inside |
| Mason Taylor | TE | 0.0 | 3.4 | 11.6 | 1.8 | -1.6 | Inside |
| Cade Otton | TE | 1.8 | 7.0 | 15.6 | 5.6 | -1.4 | Inside |
| Dak Prescott | QB | 8.0 | 16.7 | 25.7 | 15.4 | -1.3 | Inside |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | 0.2 | 5.7 | 18.6 | 7.0 | +1.3 | Inside |
| Jared Goff | QB | 8.5 | 17.7 | 27.3 | 16.4 | -1.3 | Inside |
| RJ Harvey | RB | 3.2 | 9.3 | 18.4 | 8.1 | -1.2 | Inside |
| Rachaad White | RB | 0.2 | 5.8 | 18.9 | 4.7 | -1.1 | Inside |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 2.8 | 9.9 | 20.8 | 8.8 | -1.1 | Inside |
| Alec Pierce | WR | 2.6 | 9.1 | 19.2 | 10.1 | +1.0 | Inside |
| Jonnu Smith | TE | 1.6 | 6.1 | 13.6 | 7.0 | +0.9 | Inside |
| Marvin Harrison | WR | 0.0 | 5.2 | 16.9 | 4.3 | -0.9 | Inside |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 2.7 | 9.6 | 20.2 | 10.5 | +0.9 | Inside |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 2.9 | 10.0 | 21.1 | 9.2 | -0.8 | Inside |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | 2.3 | 8.8 | 19.6 | 9.5 | +0.7 | Inside |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 0.2 | 5.1 | 16.6 | 4.4 | -0.7 | Inside |
| Darnell Mooney | WR | 0.0 | 4.2 | 13.7 | 4.7 | +0.5 | Inside |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | 2.4 | 9.4 | 21.1 | 9.8 | +0.4 | Inside |
| Tre Tucker | WR | 0.0 | 5.1 | 16.4 | 4.7 | -0.4 | Inside |
| Woody Marks | RB | 0.2 | 5.4 | 17.5 | 5.0 | -0.4 | Inside |
| Aaron Jones | RB | 3.3 | 9.7 | 19.1 | 10.0 | +0.3 | Inside |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 0.0 | 5.2 | 16.9 | 5.5 | +0.3 | Inside |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | 1.8 | 7.2 | 16.0 | 7.5 | +0.3 | Inside |
| Josh Downs | WR | 0.0 | 5.4 | 17.4 | 5.7 | +0.3 | Inside |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | 0.0 | 5.1 | 16.6 | 4.8 | -0.3 | Inside |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | 3.5 | 10.1 | 19.9 | 10.3 | +0.2 | Inside |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR | 0.0 | 4.4 | 14.3 | 4.6 | +0.2 | Inside |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | 2.5 | 8.8 | 18.5 | 9.0 | +0.2 | Inside |
| Michael Pittman | WR | 2.6 | 9.0 | 19.0 | 8.8 | -0.2 | Inside |
What moved after the first posting
The grade uses the first posting, from Sep 3, 2026. The weekly model re-runs daily and the week's hub picks up each run within the hour, but a re-run never changes the grade. The last re-run for this week came on Sep 14, 2026.
16 medians moved a full point or more by the last re-run; the 1 named by that week's board are listed below.
| Player | Pos | First posting | Last re-run | Change | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | 8.9 | 5.9 | -3.0 | 23.7 |
44 players in the first posting were gone from the last re-run. The weekly model removes a player whose designation reads Doubtful, Out, IR, PUP or suspended.
The week's summary row sits on the accuracy record; its newest projections are on the week's hub.
FAQ
What exactly gets graded here?
The first weekly PPR projection we posted for each player, ahead of that week's opening kickoff. Half-PPR, standard and the daily-fantasy numbers are not graded, and the draft board's season projections are judged by their backtest, never by rows on this page.
Why list the misses first?
A scorecard sorted by its best rows is a brochure. The Ledger sorts on how far each projection missed, so the calls that went furthest wrong come first and the ones that landed near the median follow at the same precision.
When does a start/sit pair count as close?
When the two bands overlapped by at least half of the narrower one, or when the two medians printed the same. That is the start/sit comparer's rule; the Ledger applies it to the numbers first posted before kickoff, so the label never depends on the score.
Why are neighboring pairs almost always close?
Weekly ranges run wide, because a single game carries a lot of noise, and two players a rank apart usually share most of their P10–P90 range. The comparer calls those leans, and the neighbor record is a count of how leans broke, not a tally of clean wins.
When does a week stop changing?
The grading run posts a week's rows once its main slate is final and the full week the day after its last game. The NFL's stat corrections can still change a score after that, so a week reads final only once those corrections are in.